On Wednesday, the ATP Paribas Open, also known as Indian Wells, kicks off in California. Things could get really interesting with the absence of Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic and the return of Carlos Alcaraz from injury. Often referred to as the “fifth Grand Slam”, American Taylor Fritz won the tournament last year by defeating Nadal in straight sets.
Chances at Indian Wells
Daniil Medvedev +275
Carlos Alcaraz +600
Yannick Sinner +800
Stefanos Tsitsipas +800
Taylor Fritz/Holger Rune/Andrey Rublev +2000
ATP rating
Djokovic is back on top of the world, but No. 2 Alcaraz has a chance to regain that title by winning the tournament. If he doesn’t make it to the Indian Wells title, Djokovic will remain #1. The Greek god Stefanos Tsisipas (#3) also has a chance to claim the top spot. Between Indian Wells and Miami, Tsitsipas needed to win one and reach the final in the other.
Injuries and Endurance
There are several players who are battling injuries, recovering from injury, or potentially entering this tournament tired. Alcaraz missed ATP Acapulco with a hamstring strain and canceled an exhibition match in Las Vegas against Taylor Fritz/Francis Tiafoe. At his peak, a 19-year-old can be a threat to any player.
Fritz fell ill during the semi-final match in Acapulco. He stopped his serve midway through the match to vomit into a bucket behind his bench. Wet conditions created a problem that resulted in Fritz having “chills, severe dehydration and full body cramps” after the match. Conditions in California aren’t as threatening, but fatigue and recovery can be factors, as with the reigning champion.
Daniil Medvedev is desperate to win his fourth tournament in a row. As the favorite to win (+275), you should be careful to support him immediately after winning the ATP in Rotterdam, Doha and Dubai. That’s a lot of tennis, a lot of time on the court. For most, this can be a problem. However, for Maddy, fatigue does not seem to be a problem. Now no one can defeat Medvedev except Medvedev himself.
Long shot to win
Holger Run (+2000) is interesting to me. After winning the ATP Paris in early November, the 19-year-old has cooled off a bit. Since then, he has had an 11-5 win/loss record, but has reached the semi-finals in Montpellier and Acapulco. In a potential quarter-final matchup against defending champion Fritz, I would favor Rune if Fritz shows early that he’s not 100%.
Choose to win
Medvedev (+275) shows Djokovic’s strength by winning three titles in a year. Why not make it fourth? At the moment, he is clearly the best player on the court on the field, especially after defeating Djokovic in straight sets in the semi-finals in Dubai. Considering he plays mostly the base game, it’s a wonder of the world that he still looks fresh. In that match, in plays of nine or more shots, Medvedev went 10-5 against the Joker. His momentum is real and reminiscent of the 2015 Djokovic season, when the Joker was completely untouchable, winning 11 titles. Maddie can definitely handle it.
Maddy has a 6-5 record in Indian Wells, so he’s not a big favorite at +275. But if you look at the titles he won until 2023, out of 15 wins, 12 were won in the second half of the season. He has already won three this year. Ride the wave.
Here are my full draw predictions for your reference.
Source: sports.yahoo.com
