UEFA Champions League: Betting tips for second leg of round of 16
The UEFA Champions League round of 16 continues with four return legs on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The remaining four matches will end next week, after which the draw for the quarter-finals will take place.
With all that in mind, let’s move on to this week’s games. As always, remember that these bets are only for results at the end of the regulation.
Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
Benfica (-255), Brugge (+675), Draw (+370)
If Benfica (currently 2-0 on aggregate) manages to finish off Club Brugge, do they have a realistic chance of progressing further?
Paul Carr: Benfica will likely find themselves in the odd situation where everyone wants a draw in the quarter-finals, yet they have as many chances as any of the bottom four teams in the quarter-finals. The Portuguese league leaders have won eight games in a row by a few goals and while they clearly don’t have to do it here, the price is too tempting to give up the weakest team left. Benfica dominated the first leg, beating Brugge 14-4 with 2.9 expected goals against Brugge’s 0.4. I will take Benfica -1.5 in the second leg +120.
Dan Thomas: Benfica dominated the first leg and I can see it’s one way again in Portugal. I think Paul has this point of view. Benfica -1.5 +120
Chelsea (-118), Borussia Dortmund (+310), Draw (+260)
If Chelsea lose this game to Dortmund, is Graham Potter out? If Borussia Dortmund beat Chelsea (1-0 on aggregate), would they be favorites to win the Champions League?
Carr: If Chelsea are relegated against Dortmund, there is little reason to sack Potter now, given that Chelsea will be eliminated from all three cup competitions and finish 10th in the Premier League. However, we all know that logic is far from being in many front offices.
In any case, Dortmund are a bit hot, like any club with a 10-match winning streak, but still have at least 1.5 expected goals in eight of those 10 games. Borussia Dortmund could have easily scored here and then Chelsea would have needed two goals, something the Blues have not done in any of their last 12 games, having won only twice in that time. I can’t imagine Chelsea being trusted here, even at Stamford Bridge. Give me Dortmund for a double chance (-111).
Thomas: I think the fact that they beat Leeds United gives Potter small more room to breathe. As always, their problems will be the targets. Dortmund held on very strongly against RB Leipzig despite a solo lead on Friday. It’s really hard to name it. I will go Chelsea under 1.5 goals (-115).
Tottenham Hotspur (-105), AC Milan (+285), draw (+245)
Milan won the first leg 1-0. Who currently has the worst form between these two sides?
Carr: The first leg was a pretty good microcosm of recent form for both teams. Tottenham had 11 shots with an expected probability of 0.4 goals and only one shot was above average. Milan were slightly better, with nine shots and 1.9 goals expected, although most of that figure came from a goal and a couple of late shots. Tottenham need a goal, of course, but since the World Cup they have only beaten the expected 1.5 goals in a game once. It should be a tense game in which both teams will be happy to play for one goal. I speak under 2.5 heads at -115.
Thomas: Both teams are in a sorry state right now. I don’t think this game will be for purists. I’ll take it too under 2.5 goals at -115.
Bayern (-125), Paris Saint-Germain (+285), draw (+305)
How will Neymar’s injury affect the game and do you think this is Lionel Messi’s last chance to win a championship? Did Joao Cancela make Bayern favorite to win?
Carr: In the first leg (won 1-0 by Bayern), PSG posed little to no threat until Kylian Mbappe came out for the final half hour. Mbappe will be healthy in this second leg, but Neymar is out and Bayern’s Sadio Mane will be available to run in what should be PSG’s stretched back line. Bayern are still playing, having won seven of their last eight matches and matched their original numbers. The exception was the defeat of Borussia Mönchengladbach, when Bayern received an early red card. Give me Bayern will win this game is at -125, a price that would be closer to -150 if it wasn’t for the second leg.
Thomas: That’s all. I’m really looking forward to this. Mbappe is healthy and hungry for goals in this match and what is the price of Mbappe’s goal two or more goals (+1000).
Former Sportzshala senior fellow Paul Carr is director of content for TruMedia.