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UFC Vegas 59 gambling preview: Can Thiagos Santos and Vicente Luque rebound from tough losses?

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We’re heading back to Las Vegas this weekend for another Fight Night card at UFC APEX. Thiago Santos as well as Jamahal Hill face to face in a battle of light heavyweight batters. The co-main event is even better, featuring two welterweight fighters, Vincent Luke as well as Geoff Nealand there are 10 more fights before the big two, giving you tons of chances to bet.

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As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings bookmaker.

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Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC.

Straight bets

Jeff Neal, +155

While Santos Hill may be the official main event, Luque vs. Neil is undeniably the main event for people on Saturday. Luke is a fan favorite who always causes a fight, and while Neil doesn’t have the same fame, he’s incredibly funny and a good fighter.

This is the essence of this bet. Luke and Neil are roughly equal fighters, the two have four common opponents and surprisingly similar results against them. Both Luke and Neil defeated Nico Price and Mike Perry in a losing effort to Stephen Thompson. Both men also defeated Belal Muhammad (although Luque lost to him recently). The math of MMA isn’t definitive, of course, but it shows that Luke and Neil are pretty close in terms of their abilities, and that’s also my take on the fight.

It will be a treat for attackers and while Luque is a better finisher, Neil is a more defensive fighter and has less body mileage. I think it’s a coin toss, so with the odds, I’m playing Neil.

Brogan Walker+105

Bets on Ultimate Fighter contractions are always a risky proposition. But in this case, I will make an exception. I’m not here to tell you that Brogan Walker is good – she’s fine at best. I’m just here to say that she is likely to win this fight. Juliana Miller is a worthy candidate and probably has a bright future ahead of her, but she needs real development and in a fight where she can’t use her jiu-jitsu, I don’t like her chances of winning. This will be one of those fights as Walker showed solid takedown defense at the TUF house despite tearing her MCL. Walker has faced some of the best prospects in women’s MMA and has performed well. I think she will do it again here.

Betting on props

Terrence McKinney KO/TKO, +120

The UFC tested the waters with McKinney by giving him Drew Dober. It’s out of order, so now it’s time to restore it. Eric Gonzalez isn’t a bad fighter, but he’s not at McKinney’s level and will most likely get crushed early. After all, ageless Jim Miller knocked out Gonzalez in his last fight. McKinney is much more powerful and has a much better chance of firing his weapon.

Sergey Spivak / Augusto Sakai up to 2.5 rounds, -165

Augusto Sakai is a classic take it or get it type of fighter. Of his seven fights in the UFC, Sakai has made only two decisions. Similarly, in his eight UFC fights, Spivak has only been in front of the judges three times. Either Spivak can use his wrestling game to finish on the floor, or Sakai will turn off the lights. In any case, it should end sooner.

UFC 272: Spivak vs. Hardy

Photo by David Becker/

Rate of the week

Jamahal Hill, -300

When in doubt, lean on the chalk and that’s what we’ll be doing for this express. At the peak of his career, this fight could have attracted interest, since Santos and Hill promised fireworks. But at this stage, Santos seems to be leaving. He’s lost four of his last five and the fights have been terrible. Hill is young and gaining momentum and it looks like he can at least outmaneuver Santos, if not finish him off.

Sergei Spivak, -280

I was just never marketed to Sakai as a good heavyweight. To me, he is a non-standard Tai Tuivasa, and given that Spivak has already quickly dealt with the “King Shui”, he should not have much trouble here. Spivak can use a simple grab and go game plan, winning either by submission or ground and pound.

Michal Olekseichuk, -600

Sam Alvey hasn’t won his previous eight fights and there’s really not much more to say. That he still has a contract with the UFC is a miracle, and Alekseychuk is going to fix that on Saturday.

Play these three bets together to get +111 odds.

UFC Fight Night: Yoder vs. Granger

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Long shot of the week

Miranda Granger by introduction, +1600

Of course, Granger is not the best fighter and she has lost two fights in a row. McKenna looks like a legitimately interesting player and superb athlete, but you know what Granger has in abundance that McKenna doesn’t? Length. McKenna will have a staggering 10-inch reach advantage that you don’t see every day at the minimum weight. My thought process for this bet is this: Granger is so long that McKenna will have to shoot from afar, and when she does, it will open her up to the guillotine, one of Granger’s best moves. Granger used the guillotine to win the Cage Fury FC title in 2019, and she has a small chance of doing so here.


Good week for us last week. We missed both of our straight underdogs but won the rest of the regular games and even revived long-range hopes for a short time. It shouldn’t have happened, but as the great Dominic Toretto says, “Victory is victory.”

Make sure you check Bets prohibited if you haven’t already for more discussion on rates. Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck and play responsibly!

All information in this article is provided to readers of MMA Fighting for entertainment, news and entertainment purposes only. It is the reader’s responsibility to study and comply with the online gambling laws in their area before placing any online sports betting.


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