With Thanksgiving coming up, only 17 NFL teams have more than a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs. FiveThirtyEightPlayoff prediction model for 2022. The rest of the NFL is holding on with hope and plea for a chance at success, if not already gearing up for the offseason. At the top of this strength ranking are the three teams with the best chance of winning the Super Bowl, and in the second tier are the four teams that I think are best placed to knock the best out without the help of a first round. playoffs. From the top to the bottom of this ranking, I’m trying to predict post-season potential rather than reacting to the results of each week. That’s why you won’t see the Eagles yet. 1 despite a loss in week 10 and a small win in week 11. Now for the 12th week!
The best of the best
1. Philadelphia Eagles (9-1 | last week’s ranking: 1)
The Eagles simply can’t flip the ball like they’ve had in the last two weeks if they want to stay at the top of the NFC and secure a first-round bye. From Weeks 1 to 9, Philadelphia led the league in rev margin with 18 forced passes while committing just three turnovers of their own. In their last two games, they have turned the ball over six times and are 31st in rev differential (-3). Philadelphia at the beginning of the season the luck of the turnover was ludicrous and doomed to regressbut the Eagles will lose more games than they should to close out the season if they let it regress dramatically all at once.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-2 | last week: 2)
The NFL has teams at the same level as the Chiefs, but there is no quarterback in the league that can match Patrick Mahomes. His total expected added points (EPA) this season is 145.7; no other quarterback in the NFL has a rating higher than 95.1. An offense in Kansas City averages 1.23 EPA per trip, nearly double that of the second-place Dolphins. Mahomes raised the crime without Tyreke Hill is arguably the best wide receiver in the league. He is different; it is so simple.
3. Buffalo Bills (7-3 | last week: 3)
Bills head coach Sean McDermott was right when he told reporters that “everyone expects Josh [Allen] be Superman in every game, always and in every shot.” Allen wasn’t Superman in goal against the Clevelands in Week 11, but rallied the team from an early 10-3 deficit to crack the Browns and improve to 7-3. There is no offense. 3 behind the Chiefs and Dolphins in the EPA to disk, while Allen himself is not. 3 behind Tua Tagovailoa and Mahomes in the EPA for a return. That Superman is enough for the Bills to set their sights on the Super Bowl.
Deep postseason contenders
4. Miami Dolphins (7-3 | last week: 5)
Tua Tagovailoa, Mike McDaniel, Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the topic of every Dolphins conversation right now, and rightly so. Electrical crime. But it also distracted us from how bad the team’s defense is this season. Miami ranks 22nd in points per game and 26th in defensive success at the start of Week 12. They have a lot of people coverage but rank 25th in yards per attempt in people coverage. Coordinator Josh Boyer’s defense principles don’t beat, and the Dolphins are losing points en masse because of it. The Dolphins are lucky to have an offensive shootout every week because they’ll have no choice but to play them against the best teams in the AFC in the postseason.
5. San Francisco 49ers (6-4 | last week: 7)
San Francisco comes out on top in the NFC West with their win over the Cardinals at Football on a Monday night. Somehow, Jimmy Garoppolo ranks fourth among quarterbacks in the EPA tossback rating (0.15), behind only Tagovailoa, Mahomes and Allen. Combine that with the best defense in scoring and fourth in yards per game and you have a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
6. Baltimore Ravens (7-3 | last week: 6)
We’d be talking more about how bad the Ravens supporting cast is if Lamar Jackson wasn’t so damn good. We know offensive coordinator Greg Roman doesn’t do him any favors in the kick-pass game, and offensive weaponry – with injured J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Rashod Bateman – is severely lacking. DeMarcus Robinson and Kenyan Drake, the team’s top wide receiver and striker on Sunday, respectively, were both omitted from the Raiders last year. It’s just not fair that Jackson is now on par with Mahomes in terms of MVP chances.
7. Dallas Cowboys (7-3 | last week: 8)
The Cowboys took no prisoners in Sunday’s 40-3 win over the Vikings. Dak Prescott completed 22 of 25 passes for 276 yards and two touchdowns in an offensive masterclass where he and RB Tony Pollard couldn’t go wrong. Micah Parsons completed his Defensive Player of the Year campaign with two sacks, and CB Trevon Diggs only allowed two 19-yard shots against Justin Jefferson. Focus on professional football. The way the Cowboys played, especially after such a heartbreaking loss to the Packers in Lambo, that’s why they third in NFC championship chances behind the Eagles and 49ers.
Unsuccessful postseason contenders
8. Minnesota Vikings (8-2 | last week: 4)
Losing to the Cowboys by 37 points at home came as a shock to even the most vocal Viking doubters. The offensive line couldn’t get past the defense, the early offense was terrible, and the defense had no answers for Pollard and Prescott. Minnesota is now tied with the Chiefs for second in the NFL, but has a two-point negative margin; 15 other teams have the best score. They are now 19th in EPA offense for driving and 30th in yards per play allowed. Both sides of the ball need to improve significantly if the Vikings are going to win the postseason.
9. Tennessee Titans (7-3 | last week: 13)
Mike Vrabel made the Titans exceed all expectations once again. In 2021, Vrabel led the Titans to the AFC’s best regular season record and earned the NFL Coach of the Year award as a result. Now, despite entering the season second only to the Colts in odds of winning the AFC South as well as tied for eighth in the AFC in projected total wins (9.0)The Titans have a four-way tie for the second-best record in the AFC at 7-3 and are heavy favorite win their division with seven remaining regular season games.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5 | last week: 14)
The Bucks beat the Rams and the Seahawks to hit .500 before the week 11 bye and are now going into the last seven games of the season as heavy favorites (-390) to win NFC South. It would be easy to say that Tom Brady is back and the Bucks are ready for the playoffs, but we still haven’t seen the forwards score over 21 points in more than two games this season. They are ranked 22nd in EPA offense for drive and have one of the worst offenses in the league. I don’t buy the Bucs as an NFC title contender over the Eagles, 49ers, Cowboys, or Vikings until we see Brady’s four-quarter lead and offense.
11. Seattle Seahawks (6-4 | last week: 11)
According to FiveThirtyEightX playoff prediction model, the Seahawks still have a 78 percent chance of making the playoffs in Week 12 despite losing to Tampa Bay in Germany. Offense is in the EPA top 10 for drive, and defense has slowly risen from deep in the league to 10th in scoring. Expect Jeno Smith and the Seahawks to earn one of the wildcard spots in the NFC, especially if they pick up a home win over the Raiders in Week 12 as the 3.5-point favorite.
on the bubble
12. Cincinnati Bengals (6-4 | last week: 9)
The Bengals’ victory over the Steelers on Sunday kept their playoff hopes alive, with more good news on Monday. Ja’Marr Chase returns to training. But nothing is guaranteed for Cincinnati as they prepare for a road game against the Titans next week and then take on the Chiefs in Week 13. Getting Chase back healthy and ensuring that Joe Burrow can hit the ball quickly and cleanly will be essential for the Bengals to earn a playoff berth. Burrow ranks fifth in the EPA pullback rankings when kept clean, and only 28th in the same statistic when he is under pressure.
13. New York Giants (7-3 | last week: 10)
The Giants, like the Jets, have led the win column all season. They entered the fourth quarter with a two-game lead this season and are 21st on points difference in the first three quarters of games. They did not win the game by more than eight points. And now they don’t have rookie WR Wan’Dale Robinson, who led 100-yard receiving yards on Sunday, until the end of the season with an ACL tear. They are still minus 150 to make the playoffs, but they are also 8.5 points behind the Thanksgiving Cowboys.
14. New England Patriots (6-4 | last week: 16)
Losing the Jets on Sunday would have nearly wiped out the Patriots’ chances of making the playoffs, so hope is alive with Marcus Jones’ winning touchdown. However, it’s undeniable that McJones and the offense were terrible even on the team’s three-game winning streak. Starting in week 9, no offense ranks lower in the offensive EPA for a ride, with Jones ranked 32nd in the EPA for pullback. It’s not going to cut it when they collide toughest remaining schedule in the NFL.
15. New York Jets (6-4 | last week: 15)
It’s hard to win this league when you’re playing for a good team and your quarterback is playing shit. Josh Allen said that after losing to the Jets earlier this month. Jets QB Zach Wilson was asked Sunday if he felt he let the defense down when New York scored just three points in a loss to the Patriots and he Said no“. Wilson has been the Achilles’ heel of the Jets’ forwards for most of the season, but his unwillingness to take responsibility takes him to the next level…