1. This is the fifth week that both of the previous season’s conference winners are underdogs at home. Los Angeles is the third reigning Super Bowl champion to score at least seven points at home. Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games.

2. Tennessee’s eight-game streak ended last week. Under Mike Wrabel, Tennessee is 15-4 ATS as an underdog by at least four points.

- Advertisement -

3. In Deshawn Watson’s first start with the Cleveland, the Browns (-8) became at least a touchdown favorite on the road since 1995. Their 195 away games in a row, without being at least 7 points favorite, is the fourth longest. series during the Super Bowl era (since 1966).

- Advertisement -

4. Miami is an underdog with four points despite an 8-3 record. Over the past five seasons, teams with a win percentage of at least 0.700 are 17-6 ATS with at least 3.5 points in games in or after November.

- Advertisement -

5. Tom Brady has only 2-11 primetime ATS points since he joined Tampa Bay. He is 2-14 ATS in his last 16 prime time games (including the playoffs).

Season Notes

  • The best ATS teams: Tennessee, Cincinnati, New York Giants (all 8-3)

  • Worst ATS Team: Los Angeles Rams (2-8-1)

  • Best Average Margin Coverage: Dallas (+7.2)

  • Worst Average Margin Coverage: Los Angeles Rams (-7.5)

  • Losers: 94-75-6 ATS

  • Home teams: 88-86-6 ATS

  • Home Outsiders: 38-27-3 ATS

  • 7+ favorites: 17-25-1 ATS

  • 10+ favorites: 7-11 ATS

  • Bottom: 100-78-2


Buffalo Bills (-5) at New England Patriots on Thursday at 8:15 pm ET.

  • The Buffalo Anderses are 8-3 this season, including 6-0 on the road.

  • Buffalo is 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.

  • New England are 7-2-1 up after losing since the start of last season (3-0-1 this season). Bill Belichick 62-33-1 ATS after losing to New England.

  • This is the second time in 20 seasons that New England have lost at home in a division game. In 2020, they lost to Buffalo 38–9 in a seven-point home underdog.

  • Down in division games this season is 32-20-1.


Pittsburgh Steelers (PC) at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1:00 pm ET.

  • Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in their last six games since starting 6-0 ATS.

  • As of 2017, Pittsburgh is 5-10-1 ATS with less than six days rest.

  • Pittsburgh is 3-0 on the ATS in its last three games against teams with a losing record.


Denver Broncos – Baltimore Ravens (-8), Sunday, 1:00 AM ET.

  • Russell Wilson has a 4-0 ATS in his career as at least a 7.5 point underdog (1-3 SU). He’s only been an eight-point underdog once — Seattle lost by five underdogs with 9.5 points in 2018 to the Los Angeles Rams.

  • Baltimore is 0-4 ATS as the home favorite this season (five ATS losses in a row since last season). Lamar Jackson 10-19 ATS as home favorite including playoffs. Overall, Baltimore is 0-4-1 at home this season.

  • Denver is 10-1 down, the best percentage of underdogs in the league. Denver is the first team to lose 10 of their first 11 games since 2011 (Jacksonville and Miami). Over the past 30 seasons, only the 2003 Buffalo and 1997 Washingtons have lost 11 of their first 12 games. Seven games in a row in Denver have failed.


Green Bay Packers (-3) at Chicago Bears Sunday at 1:00 pm ET.

  • Green Bay has played seven games in a row. Aaron Rodgers 22-7 vs Chicago including playoffs (11-3 away). The last time Green Bay was not a favorite with at least four points was in the first week of 2019 (+3).

  • Green Bay is the ATS 1-6 favorite this season with six ATS losses in a row. Green Bay is the 0-2 away favorite this season (0-5 ATS, 1-4 SU in last five games as away favorite).

  • Chicago is 0-3 ATS in their last three games.

  • Chicago is 7-16 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.

  • Down in division games this season is 32-20-1.


Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) at Detroit Lions Sunday at 1:00 pm ET.

  • Jacksonville has been the away favorite once in the past three seasons (first week of 2021 in Houston – lost outright as a three-point favorite).

  • Jacksonville has failed to spotlight their last seven games as favorites, including going 0-3 ATS this season and 0-6 ATS since 2020.

  • Detroit covered four games in a row.

  • Detroit 18-10 ATS led by Dan Campbell, the second best record in this range. Campbell 9-3 ATS as home underdog.


Cleveland Browns (-7) to Houston Texans Sunday at 1 ET

  • Cleveland hasn’t been at least seven points favorite since 1995 (-8). His 195 consecutive road games without a favorite with at least seven points is the fourth longest streak in the Super Bowl era and the second longest active streak (New York Jets: 249 consecutive games this week since 1991).

  • Quarterbacks who have not started a game for 500 days or more and score at least seven points in their first start after the break receive 1–6 ATS over the past 25 seasons, including 1–3 clean sheets and ATS over the past 15 seasons.

  • Houston 7-0 ATS vs Cleveland since 2008.

  • Houston is 1-5 ATS in their last six games and 0-3 ATS in their last three games.

  • Cleveland 8-17 ATS favorite under Kevin Stefanski (2-5 ATS favorite on the road). Cleveland’s biggest favorite role under Stefanski is 6.5.


New York Jets v Minnesota Vikings (-3), Sunday at 1:00 pm ET.

  • New York is 4-1 this season and ATS is on the road.

  • Minnesota has played six non-conference games in a row (3-0 this season).

  • New York has a 5-2 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 under Robert Saleh (6-2 ATS in all games unless he is a 3.5 or more underdog).

  • Minnesota is an 8-0 favorite this season, one of three undefeated teams as favorites (Washington: 4-0, New York Jets: 2-0). Minnesota is 3-0-1 ATS as a 1-3 point favorite and 1-3 ATS as a four or more point favorite.


Washington Commanders (-2.5) at New York Giants Sunday at 1:00 pm ET.

  • Washington is 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games, including a 4-0 ATS away in that span. The Washingtons are 5-0-1 this season with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. He is 7-0-1 ATS in his last eight matches and 13-9-1 ATS in his career including playoffs.

  • Washington is a 4-0 ATS favorite this season with six straight covers since last season. Washington is 4-0 ATS as the away favorite since the start of last season.

  • New York is 6-1 ATS as the underdog this season.

  • Under 12-0-1 the last 13 times New York has been underdog at home.

  • Daniel Jones 4-1 and ATS vs. Washington.

  • New York 3-0 ATS after losing this season.

  • Down in division games this season is 32-20-1.


Tennessee Titans – Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5), Sunday, 1:00 AM ET.

  • Philadelphia is 5-1 at home this season. His last five home games have topped the total. Tennessee 5-1 ATS on the road with five straight pavements.

  • Mike Vrabel 15-4 ATS as underdog by at least four points including playoffs (13-6 overall).

  • Tennessee is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games, including a 4-1 ATS as an underdog in that span. His eight-game cover streak was snapped last week against Cincinnati.

  • Tennessee 15-10-1 ATS after losing to Mike Wrabel (9-4 ATS since 2020).


Seattle Seahawks (-8) at Los Angeles Rams Sunday at 4:05 AM ET.

  • Jeno Smith has never been a favorite with more than 5.5 points in his career, and he has never been a favorite with more than three points away.

  • Los Angeles is the third reigning Super Bowl champion to score at least seven points at home (1987 New York: +10; 1968 Green Bay: +9). This is the fifth time both the previous season’s conference champions have lost at home in the same week (the first time since week 17, 2020).

  • Los Angeles hasn’t been a seven-point underdog since week 17 of 2016 (+7 vs. Arizona). It hasn’t been a big home underdog since week 11 of 2014 (+9 vs. Denver; win outright).

  • Los Angeles is the league’s worst 2-8-1 ATS this season, including an 0-4-1 ATS as an underdog, a 1-5 ATS at home, and a 0-5 ATS against teams with winning records.

  • Los Angeles is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings, including the playoffs. Sean McVeigh 7-4 ATS vs. Pete Carroll.

  • Down in division games this season is 32-20-1.


Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-4), Sunday 4:05 AM ET.

  • Tua Tagovailoa has a career 18-11-1 ATS (8-4-1 ATS as an outsider). He is 7-2-1 ATS as an underdog by at least 3.5 points (6-4 in the score).

  • Kyle Shanahan is 9-17-2 ATS as the house favorite. However, he is 6-1 ATS in his last seven games in this role (3-1 ATS this season). His last six games as a home favorite have gone under the total.

  • Over the past five seasons, teams with a win percentage of at least 0.700 are 17-6 ATS with at least 3.5 points in games in or after November. They make up 15-4 ATS when the games of week 17 are removed.


Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, 4:25 AM ET.

  • Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games.

  • Cincinnati has covered six straight games as an underdog since last season, including the playoffs.

  • Kansas City is a 49-27-1 ATS on the road led by Andy Reid.

  • Kansas City is ranked 1-6 in the conferences this season.

  • Kansas City is 10-3 in road games since the start of last season than it has been in eight of its last nine games.

  • Cincinnati games are 5-0 fewer when teams with winning records meet.

  • This is the fifth time both the previous season’s conference champions have lost at home in the same week (the first time since week 17, 2020).


Los Angeles Chargers (-2) vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday 4:25 AM ET.

  • Los Angeles is 5-1 on the road this season.

  • Las Vegas has played three games in a row as an underdog. Las Vegas is 3-1 ATS as the underdog this season and 2-5 ATS as the favorite. This is their first game as a home underdog since last year’s Week 18 game against Los Angeles (Las Vegas won by three points for three points).

  • Justin Herbert has 13-8 career points on the road, but only 4-5 points as a favorite away.

  • Down in division games this season is 32-20-1.


Indianapolis Colts – Dallas Cowboys (-10.5), Sunday, 8:20 am ET.

  • Dallas is the NFL’s best 20-8 ATS since the start of last season, including a 14-5 ATS as a favorite.

  • Indianapolis is 9-3 this season (5-1 on the road; 6-0 against teams with a winning record).

  • Double-digit favorites – 0-4 ATS in prime time games starting in week 8. Double-digit favorites – 19-28-1 ATS in prime time games for…