Home MLB Where should Aaron Judge sign? Ranking all 30 MLB teams

Where should Aaron Judge sign? Ranking all 30 MLB teams



With all the speculation about where Aaron Judge will sign up, how about asking where he is must sign?

The question is difficult. First of all, there is only one opinion that ultimately matters: the opinion of the judge. To apply our own factors is to make wild assumptions about his decision-making process.

But hey, it’s a sport and we do it all the time. When you’re talking about a player of Judge’s caliber – one of the game’s biggest stars, someone who puts asses on seats and moves merchandise – that’s a question worth asking. Each time such a star becomes a free agent, it is a test of the various factors behind the Major League Baseball offseason.

With that in mind, I created what I call Fit Rating. It’s just like it sounds. I looked at five factors and then ranked each franchise against the most recent performance in those categories. I have assigned each category one, two, or three points as a weighting factor, where three are the most important and one is the least. The final scores ranged from 91 to 121.7, where 100 is the average score.

Five factors:

Market: Primarily based on each franchise’s media market population, adjusted to reflect that teams in common markets do not necessarily have the same market share. Indices in this category receive two weighting points.

Baseball stadium: Which parks are best for a judge? I based this conclusion on Statcast data on expected home runs by venue, using five years of data. As we all know, Judge hit 62 homers last season. According to Statcast, that figure would be 73 if Judge played all of his games at Great American Park in Cincinnati. If he played at Comerica Park in Detroit, the number would be 51. That’s another two-point category.

Payroll: Yes, there is a coincidence with the size of the media market, but not completely. Some teams spend more than expected, others don’t. I’ve calculated a standard opening day salary estimate for each team for the past 15 seasons based on data from Cot’s Contracts. I used the average of the top three seasons. This is a three point category.

Geography: Judge attended high school in Linden, California, as did his wife. Throughout his major league career, he has called Yankee Stadium his home. So I calculated the distance of each major league park from those two locations—Linden High School and Yankee Stadium—and used the smaller distance as the basis for scoring in that category. The closer the better. This is just one point category in the weighting – the least important factor.

Subsequence: This takes into account how many teams have won recently (average number of wins per 162 games over the past three seasons), as well as the average over the past 15 years. We aim to balance consideration of which teams win consistently with those who are best placed to win now. This is a three point category.

After all this was evaluated and brought together, this is what the rating turned out to be.

Source: www.espn.com