Why USA baseball’s WBC title hopes took huge hit with Mexico loss, and how the Americans can still advance

Team USA will play their third game of the 2023 World Baseball Classic on Monday night against Canada. Chicago White Sox right-hander Lance Lynn will get the starting nod for the US team, which was nearly subjected to the mercy rule in Sunday night’s loss against Mexico. Team USA’s record is now 1-1 with two games to play, making Monday’s game close to a mandatory win if the reigning WBC champions look to advance to the next phase.

Below, CBS Sports announced what’s ahead for Team USA and summarized how Sunday night’s defeat makes it harder for them to claim a championship repeat. Before we dive into the specifics of the American situation, we thought it might be helpful to recap how the WBC tournament structure works.

At the first stage of the pool game, 20 teams are distributed over four cells. Each of these five teams in each pool plays each other for a total of four games. The tournament then enters its second phase, with the top two teams in each of the four pools advancing to a best-of-one elimination eight-team tournament. In other words, the team that wins three knockout games in a row becomes the ultimate champion.

It’s clear? Good. Now let’s be more specific about the US team and what awaits them.

1. Remaining schedule

As mentioned above, this initial phase of the WBC involves playing one game against the other four teams in the group. Team USA has already played Great Britain and Mexico, leaving them dates against Canada and Colombia.

• Canada, Monday, 22:00 ET.
• Colombia, Wednesday, 22:00 ET.

The Americans will meet the Canadians on Monday evening and rest on Tuesday. They will then play Colombia on Wednesday night. In its current form, this game may have “win or return to spring training” bets.

2. Current pool picture

Here’s a look at how pool C makes it into Monday’s game list:

Team	victories	Losses	Remaining games
Canada	1	0	3
Colombia	1	0	3
Mexico	1	1	2
USA	1	1	2
Great Britain	0	2	2

Canada and Colombia have most of the tournaments ahead of them, so Pool C will continue to take shape in the coming days. We can write with a high degree of certainty that the UK will not move forward. They will face Colombia on Monday afternoon where they will likely fall to 0-3.

Otherwise? Pool C can become a confusing situation. If the US team wins, then every team in the pool is guaranteed to suffer at least one loss. Canada has yet to play Colombia and Mexico, meaning two more guaranteed defeats will be up for grabs between those clubs.

Depending on how these games play out, there is a scenario (US beats Canada, Columbia beats UK, Canada beats Colombia) where Pool C looks like this, competing on Wednesday:

Team	victories	Losses	Remaining games
Canada	2	1	1
Colombia	2	1	1
Mexico	2	1	1
USA	2	1	1
Great Britain	0	4	0

This is one of the “easy” scenarios as Mexico-Canada and US-Colombia would close out the Group C game. The winners of these games advanced to the next round and the losers went home. To get an idea of ​​how complicated this can be, here’s another, less simple scenario:

Team	victories	Losses	Remaining games
Colombia	3	0	1
USA	2	1	1
Mexico	2	1	1
Canada	1	2	1
Great Britain	0	4	0

Now let’s say Team USA beats Colombia and Mexico beats Canada. Suddenly you have a three-way tie at 3-1. Only two teams can advance, so how on earth would that work? We’re glad you asked.

3. Possible tie-break

WBC tiebreak rules are simple when it’s a two-team stalemate: the team that wins the head-to-head match has the advantage. WBC tiebreak rules for ties between three or more teams are much more complicated. Our Mike Axisa laid out the following on Sunday to explain the five-team draw in Group A:

Here are the tiebreak rules for three or more teams:

1. The smallest quotient of the fewest runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the tied teams.

2. The lowest quotient of the fewest runs earned allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the tied teams.

3. Highest average in games in this round between tied teams.

4. Draw.

Note that in the first tie-break, runs are allowed – no runs count, no differentiated runs, but runs are allowed – and only in games between even teams. This is important because, as JJ Cooper of Baseball America tweetedit would be difficult for the Americans to gain an advantage over either team.

Let’s start with Mexico as they have completed their games against the other teams in question. In total, they allowed 10 runs and recorded 57 strikeouts in this competition, for a 0.175 run odds. The Americans could have knocked Columbia out of the game in nine innings, and their run ratio would still be worse, .204, all because of the 11 runs they allowed to Mexico on Sunday.

And Colombia? Unfortunately for Americans, the math will still not be in their favor.

Colombia will enter Wednesday’s game, allowing Mexico four runs on 30 strikeouts. Let’s say Team USA keeps Columbia out by nine innings, thereby guaranteeing a run factor of 0.204. Colombia’s own run rate will remain higher if they keep the Americans under eight points. The Americans would need to beat Colombia, almost to the point of achieving a mercy rule victory, in order to move forward.

Maybe the advertised US roster would have been up to the mark – the Colombian staff is not as intimidating as, say, the Japanese among other WBC teams. Barring that, a three-way tie would mean trouble for the Americans. This makes it even more important that they not only mind their own business but also get some help elsewhere ahead of Wednesday’s game against Colombia.