Bets don’t discount too much Argentina’s chances of winning the 2022 World Cup after losing 2-1 to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.
The Saudi victory was one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history. Saudi Arabia had +1800 to win before the start of the game. According to BetMGM, these are the biggest chances for an underdog to win in World Cup history.
But this victory did not greatly affect Argentina’s chances of winning the World Cup. The Argentines were the most popular team to win the World Championship at BetMGM and the second favorite with +500. And now they are just the #4 favorite with +750.
Why? It’s pretty simple. First, Argentina pretty much outplayed Saudi Arabia, and it’s fair to say that the defeat was an accident. Saudi Arabia’s risky offside trap worked well, but there were a few close situations. Argentina failed to score three goals in the first half due to offside.
Saudi Arabia also landed only three shots and only two were on target. This is a random rate of fire. Teams that control possession and have more shots, like Argentina on Tuesday, tend to win more often than not.
Secondly, Mexico and Poland tied on Tuesday. This means Argentina are just one point behind second in the group and will be in the top two if they beat Mexico on Saturday.
Argentina are ahead of Mexico and Poland in the last two games of the group stage and six points from two wins in those games ensure Argentina finishes in the top two and advances to the playoffs. In addition, there is even a realistic path that Argentina can reach the round of 16 with a win and a draw in the last two games.
Of course, Argentina will be knocked out of the World Cup after the group stage if they lose to Mexico on Saturday, but the bookies think this is unlikely. Argentina has -175 to beat Mexico and Mexico has +450 to win the game. If you are ready to take the risk again, betting on Argentina in the next two games is the right decision. It will be amazing if what happened to Saudi Arabia happens again to Mexico or Poland.